It's been quite a while since I've had a chance to update this blog. First, I have switched positions at work twice since I last posted(same company), which has certainly kept me quite busy. Second, I still have no idea how I want to proceed with this blog. Third....well ,no one has asked me for any advice since the beginning. I do at least check daily to see if anyone has posted at all , thanks to ScottyB the lone poster, if you like music check out ScottyB's blog; Hiddentrack It's quite awesome.
My goal going forward should be to "blog" more often, but my original plan was to make this more of a Q and A, and not write something fresh each day. . I just wanted to give my 2 cents on everyone else's picks. I will continue to ponder this blog, that is my promise to you. So for now I figured I should at least come back and discuss the first 5 stocks that were thrown at me. This should hopefully illustrate how i work. Charts are property of Bigcharts
You may have also noticed I learned how to set up links and images (tomorrow I might trade in my velcro shoes, and see if i can handle laces)
Let's start with AKAM
When I was asked about AKAM it was trading at 50.70 in mid Oct. It was purchased close to $32 earlier in the year. I said it will go higher, and was a great one to buy on a sharp pullback as I believe it will reach over $100 at some point. As you will hear me say time and time again, charts are very unforgiving. Timing can be very important(ask anyone that bought it close to 60 recently), and for the long term investor it can provide great entry points. After nearly touching $60, stock pulled back to the low 40's (talk about unforgiving, down 25% in a few short days) and now it's $48 and climbing.
MVL
So MVL is pretty much in the same spot as my initial analysis when it was trading at 25 3/4. I suggested it would go higher, and it did(over 30), I always look for pullbacks, and this actually might have been it. Stock held 25-26 rather well, and is poised to go higher.
TEVA
Of all the 5 stocks that were presented to me this is the one i love. I love it long time. I suggested to buy then, and on any and all pullbacks. (If you bought then, you were never down more than $2 in your position) Even buying now I believe you are only risking $5 on down side, once this thing has it's next big move(over $45)......its off to the races.
NUE
ss wrote:
NUE has earnings tomorrow, what do you think of a short term trade in that, post earnings?
thechartguy wrote:
i love the short side with a 56 top, i think the stock has had it's run, and the smart money(institutional) wont jump back in til 43-45....if the numbers are so great (and thats a big IF) , and the stock opens above 60....well when in rome. as a former day trader keep in mind....they can do what ever they want with a stock on any given, but over the long term the chart wins.
Funny how the market works, but the numbers worked out well on this one. For four days after the earnings the stock stayed below the 56 mark, but then took off clear through 60. Of course the stock pulled in and tested 56 again, and has remained nicely above $60 (as it should). Looks like we just got a great opportunity this past week to get in.
NE
 Another day trader asked me about NE in mid Oct on a very short term basis. It was at $63.15 on that day(10/12/06), and I said I like it short with a stop at 66. While it held for maybe a day, the important thing here is that once it went through 66, it has never seen it again. Twice it tested 67 and change over the last 9 months. As bearish as I may be in principals, the charts dont lie. And If you took this advice to heart and played the long side once it crossed 66, you would have reaped great rewards If you get lucky you may get a pullback in the low 80's but no guarantee, it will even get that low.
So how do you think I did on my first few picks? What else do you have for me?
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Hi. My name is thechartguy....and I'm a chartoholic (not catholic like google suggested). That means I am addicted to charts....particularly stock charts. Charts show past price, volume, and movement of a stock.I love the stock market, and i love how the market or stock can giveth or taketh. I have been involved in the market for 10+ years, and have worked in many aspects of the industry. I have been on the institutional side, worked with advisors, portfolio mangers, and even day traded for a few years.
What i have come to realize over the last few years is that while my approach to the market is much different than most, it seems to be quite effective. I was never one who wanted to be "stock broker", I don't think cold calling with a stock tip was the path for me. Besides being an advisor or broker is just a fancy way of saying salesman. No one gets paid to tell someone not to buy a stock. I did not want to become an analyst, dissecting financial statements, so that i can predict within 1 penny what company XYZ may earn.
My approach to the market is based purely on charts aka technicals. I use many different charts to formulate my own opinion. Don't get me wrong fundamental analysis certainly has its merits in investing and is widely used as the sole basis for stock picking. I understand how the market works, and the principals behind what drives stock price and earnings, I just don't believe it is the end game (ask anyone who owned Worldcom or Enron). The data that analysts are dissecting is only as good as the information provided by the company.
The fact is I love to talk stocks with anyone, at any time, and over the last ten years some of my best advice has been given to friends, and family More importantly than making money in many cases, I saved them lots more by knowing what to avoid. My friends always ask my opinion before buying or selling a stock, now I want to share my thoughts with the average investor. We are all small fish compared to the "real money" that move stocks, so having an edge certainly helps. If you cant afford to lose money, you should not be buying stocks at all. Buying a stock is the easiest thing in the world, selling it is the hard part for most.
If you are still with me, this is how I envision the site working (and it is a work in progress, so please be patient)
1. I want to run it similar to Mad Money (Jim Cramer's Show). Simply ask me about a stock, and let me do the rest.
2. When someone asks me about a stock, the more information you provide the better. ie: price you bought, time frame, and your goal for the stock
3. My analysis of a stock is purely based on my own research and opinion. My opinions are based on charts, and charts only. I use several different styles of charts depending on the situation. Once again I understand fundamental analysis, i just like the picture that charts paint.
4. I would like to keep all stock questions, and comments on this first blog entry. This may change in the future (once i cant manage the comments anymore) again this is a work in progress, but well worth it.
5. I WILL NOT SOLICIT STOCKS EVER!!! If you solicit or tout stocks here, your comments will not be approved.
6. If you find my advice helpful, please feel free to share this site your friends,family, or co-workers
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